Polls

The Coleman campaign has sent me some poll results. First of all, the poll comes from a very reputable pollster so I believe that it is fairly accurate. The poll contains a lot of bad news for republicans, but lets start with the primary race.

Ted Strickland leads Michael Coleman 25% to 18% with 57% undecided, largely in part due to Strickland's lead in name id. Strickland's lead is nearly identical to his name id. lead (33% to 25%). These percentages are likely primary voters. Both have a lot room to grow. The poll predicts a tight race for the primary.

Now for the really bad news for republicans. Despite having more than double the name id among general election voters, the three republicans running for governor are running flat footed mired in the thirties with Coleman and Strickland. At best, Montgomery, Blackwell, and Petro pull in 39, 36, and 34 percent respectively with Coleman and Strickland in the 30 - 34 percent range. The name id for general voters is as follows: Betty Montgomery 65%, Ken Blackwell 61%, Jim Petro 51%, Ted Strickland 27%, and Michael Coleman 25%.

With leads like that in name id all three republicans should have at least 15 point leads at this time. That bodes very well for the Democratic contenders.

The Coleman campaign must of paid a fortune for this poll, which is unfortunate, because it is now largely useless. The sampling dates are July 18 - 20 which are pre-Katrina and Katrina has had a enormous effect on politics which has not yet been felt. Coleman will benefit the most from the Katrina blow back as he is a mayor running for governor. The poll summary states that "Coleman’s profile as a mayor and chief executive is far more appealing than Strickland’s positioning as a Member of Congress." When the post-Katrina polling comes out, that fact will be brought to bear and greatly help Coleman. It will easily erase his primary deficit providing that no other variables enter the equation.