OH-02, What Does It Mean?

The Ohio special election for the 2nd congressional district is over. Jean Schmidt has defeated Paul Hackett by a slim margin. So, what does this all mean? Let’s take a look at some of the numbers and the consequences of the race.

Schmidt won by 3,573 votes with 112,375 votes cast. That puts voter turnout somewhere in the mid twenties. I had thought before the election that a twenty percent turnout was probably the breaking point for Hackett, and I correctly predicted the 52-48 victory for Schmidt. This may turn out to be a plus for the Democratic Party hinging on whether or not a statewide election reform amendment passes in November.

If Paul Hackett had won, even with incumbency on his side, he would have surely lost next year with an expected 45-55% turnout. There are simply too many republicans in this district. If the election reform passes this fall, redistricting will take place in 2007. It’s unlikely the republican party will try to take her out in 2006, so Schmidt will be sitting as a vulnerable candidate in 2008. I’d rather have a weak Schmidt sitting in that seat when redistricting is done rather than some other republican.

Even if election reform doesn’t pass this fall, having a weak Schmidt in office prevents the republican party from using this office as a bench builder. Schmidt is never going to be able to run statewide, and should keep republican up and comers out of this seat for a few terms.

I don’t have a breakdown of voter turnout yet so I don’t know how much vote leakage republicans suffered in this race, but it really doesn’t matter. The conventional wisdom is that this race was much closer than expected due to voter backlash at the corrupt republican party. This should do two things. First, it should make it a little harder for the republicans to fill out their statewide ticket next year with quality candidates. Secondly, it should embolden some of our better candidates to run. I’m talking to you, Sherod Brown. Get off your ass and into the Senate race. If you do, Dewine is toast.

Lastly, let’s take a look at the role of the net roots in this campaign. The blogosphere was in full celebration last night and this morning, and rightly so. We made this election a close race. It does, however; show that the net roots is still in its infancy. This was one special election, and I doubt we could have gotten Hackett this close in a normal general election of which there are 438 next year. We are making great strides though, and we are gathering power. Where do we go from here? Much discussion is needed to decide that.

As for myself, for now I personally believe we should steer clear of D.C. funded races. We should use our efforts to fill in the gaps left by providing money and manpower to races discarded by D.C. Sure, D trip, and the DNC et al will take the plums, but we will pick from the pits to plant the trees that will be the future of the Democratic Party.