Wednesday, November 08, 2006

On The Pryce Kilroy Race

At this point Mary Jo Kilroy trails Deb Pryce by 3,536 votes. In the Franklin County part of this district, I would expect that there are roughly 16,000 outstanding ballots. These ballots are either absentee ballots that were received Monday or Tuesday and provisional ballots cast yesterday.

If you assume that absentee ballots break the same as provisional ballots 75% of them should be valid and using a model showing them breaking 2-1 for Kilroy it should net her an additional roughly 4,000 votes. Of course that assumes that every ballot cast a vote for this race which isn't realistic.

I can only assume that after the outstanding ballots are counted in this race it should be tighter than a gnat's ass. I look for a mini-Florida style recount with both parties challenging ballots to the end. You better lawyer up Mary Jo.

I started to get uneasy about this race yesterday afternoon after hearing just too many reports of short or no lines at the polls. I had previously been confident that Mary Jo would win, but I sensed a depressed turnout in some of our core districts so I went out into the field to check it out for myself. It was dismal. At the large precinct I vote in, turnout was around twenty percent as of the next to last poll strike. It wasn't much better at others I visited.

A couple of Dem workers assured me that thirty percent of it had voted early. That remains to be seen. I somehow doubt it.

Update: It appears that CNN's numbers contain absentee ballots while the SOS does not. Kilroy is probably toast.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The outstanding number is 30,000 from the 15th in Franklin County