President Bush contends that Iraq will inspire democratic change in the region. But far from being an inspiration, Iraq has turned into a bogeyman. It is the nightmare example cited by authoritarian Arab regimes as proof of the looming chaos if they open their systems too fast.
Even Arab democrats no longer talk of the January moment when millions of Iraqis voted. In Syria, political dissidents told me they don't want swift "regime change" in their country lest it lead to Iraq-style chaos. In Lebanon, leading members of the newly empowered political opposition worry Iraq will unsettle the region.
In Egypt, government officials warn that rapid political change will enable Islamists to take power. As proof, they point to the victory of Shiite religious parties in Iraqi elections.
These people are, in fact, correct. The handwriting was on the wall for what Iraq was going to become before we lobbed the first smart bomb at Saddam Hussein. You can’t destabilize a country by creating a void of power at the top without having various factions make aggressive, sometimes violent, power grabs to fill that void, especially when that country is sitting on trillions in oil revenue.
You really only have to look at recent history to see this in action. Consider the tortoise and the hare that are China and Russia respectively. Russia threw their doors open to immediate all encompassing democracy and it turned out to be a disaster. Rampant crime and corruption quickly became the norm, sound familiar? Russia is now slowly inching back towards totalitarianism. China on the other hand went the slow route towards democracy and is now poised to be the economic super power of the 21st century.
The sad thing is that the neo-cons that planned this fiasco are supposed to be experts on Russia. How could they not see this coming?
No comments:
Post a Comment