The Tennessee Senate Race

This race between Harold Ford Jr. and Bob Corker is turning out to be one of the more pleasantly surprising Senate races of the season. When Corker won the republican nomination, I kind of figured that Ford was done. Initial polling showed Corker with a decent lead and after all, it is Tennessee.

But strong campaigning by Ford coupled with a land deal scandal now plaguing Corker has turned the tables in this race and Ford now leads in the latest Mason-Dixon poll with a lead among likely voter although, it is inside the margin of error. (Rasmussen shows Ford leading 48-43, and a Chattanooga Free Times poll shows a dead heat.)

This week, in an attempt to stem the tide, Corker canned his entire senior campaign staff, and I have to admit, the new crew did a pretty good job of spinning it with the local press. Consider this from the Chattanoogan:

The Corker for Senate campaign today announced the opening of an additional Nashville office and "the enhancement of staff for the final stretch of the race."

“In addition to the great team that was already in place, we have been fortunate to add some outstanding staff members who will be instrumental in communicating Bob’s record of success as a businessman, civic leader and elected official with the voters of Tennessee,” said Tom Ingram, newly named campaign chairman. “I am excited to go into the final weeks of this race with such an outstanding group of people working hard to make sure that Bob Corker brings his proven record of leadership to the United States Senate.”

That is good spin. You see, Corker didn't fire his entire campaign staff, he simply gave all their jobs to other people. They will remain with the campaign in a diminished capacity until they fade off into that good night. It is also smart to put the new team into a new office to avoid conflict with the old team.

Now, Corker still has some more damaging news to come out over the land deal before the election, so that will definitely hurt him. If Ford continues his strong campaigning, especially reaching out to moderates as he has so far, he can win this thing. And of course, there is now an 800 pound child predator in the room of every campaign which will hurt republicans everywhere regardless of culpability. Prediction: Ford 51, Corker 49.