I'd like to take some time here and preview the New Jersey Senate race between Bob Menendez and Tom Kean Jr. In recent polling Kean has had a slight edge on Menendez but a Mason-Dixon poll out today shows Menendez leading 44-41. This is where Kean's problem lies. Republicans poll very well in New Jersey -- in September.
In the past few cycles all the NJ statewide races I have followed tightened up in September, only to have Democratic voter return to the roost in October. In 2004, there was even talk of Bush winning New Jersey as that race tightened. Bush eventually lost by 7%, and that was when he was somewhat popular. His current approval rating in NJ is 37%.
Both candidates are still in the low forties however, and with the amount of mud being slung in this race anything can still happen, but if I was a betting man I would say Menendez pulls this one out by a very slim margin, no more than 52-48.