Zack Space has released an internal poll showing him ahead of Bob Ney 46% - 35%. It's an internal poll, so as always, take it with a grain of salt. I myself still have the general feeling that the race is closer than that.
Still, if these numbers are to be believed, I would have to attribute Ney falling behind due to the picture that was recently floated showing Ney meeting with the Tigua tribe of Texas, a meeting Ney lied about to Senate investigators when he denied it ever happened.
Space should enclose that photo on every mailing he sends out. Hell, I'd buy billboard space featuring that picture with the caption, "Bob Ney says he never met with these guys."