Friday, June 02, 2006

Mr Paulson, Welcome Aboard The Hindenburg

I'm not really sure why we have a jobs forecast. The consensus number CNN cited this morning figured we would add around 178,000 jobs in May. The actual number added was only 75,000. These forecasts are almost always wildly off the mark. What exactly do these guys do? It seems like one sticks a finger in the wind and says, "It feels like about 178,000 jobs this month," while another says, "I concur, lets get Chinese for lunch."

I'm sure their model for forecasting jobs created is much more complicated than that, but of course their model is stuck in a pre-9/11 Bush Presidency mode where the economy created 250,000 jobs a month almost without fail. Those damn Clinton years of peace and prosperity.

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