A couple of years ago, I told some friends that I didn't think that the Middle East peace process would ever make much progress until Ariel Sharon and Yassar Arafat were dead. More recently I had changed my mind about Sharon, but I had become less certain that his new movement would move forward after Sharon slipped into a coma so close to the controversial evacuation of the Gaza Strip, but yesterday's elections gave a victory to Sharon's Kadima party, a win that should help move the peace process forward. It was a pretty bad defeat for the hard-line right Likud party, who finished fifth.
With Kadima leading the way and Ehud Olmert remaining Prime Minister, the evacuation of most of the West Bank will proceed, which is going to be ugly as there eight times as many families there as there was in Gaza. Still, it will happen.
After the evacuation, Hamas needs to make the next step towards peace, but that is going to be unlikely as long as Israel is withholding the Palestinian's legally due monthly tax and customs duties. Israel needs to reconstitute those payments, and Hamas needs to in return, recognize Israel's right to exist.
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