Immigration As A Wedge Issue

I don't see the immigration bill as approved by the Judiciary Committee as much of a wedge issue for the 2006 elections. There has been a lot of talk that this issue will fracture the republican coalition. I don't think so and here's why.

In a way, both factions of the republican party got what they wanted if the bill passes as the committee approved it. Big business will still have access to cheap labor, and the conservative right will, well, they still get to be angry, and sometimes I think they relish that more than ever having a chance to implement the policies they trumpet.

The conservative right aren't going to vote for Democrats any time soon, and, at least in the Senate, there aren't any viable primary challengers to the republican incumbents. The only Senate race this could potentially effect would be the DeWine / Brown match up in Ohio as DeWine sided with the Democrats in committee, but I don't think it will. With Ken Blackwell probably heading up the statewide ticket, those voter are still going to turnout, and they are more likely to pull the lever for DeWine than Brown or than not at all. There may be some House races this effects, but I haven't looked at that yet.

The one thing that will hurt the republicans over this deal is that they came out looking very bad as a party to Hispanics. They will probably lose some of the inroads they have made in the past few years among Hispanic voters. Will it be enough to turn the tide? I don't know, but it won't break up the traditional conservative block.