Thursday, December 15, 2005

Gray Power

An article in today's Wall Street Journal has got to be giving republicans in Congress chills. The old folks are pissed, and we all know they vote. From WSJ:

The results can be seen in Americans' attitudes toward Congress 11 months before Election Day 2006. By a 65%-19% margin, Americans age 65 and above disapprove of the performance of Congress; those under 65 are also negative but less lopsidedly, 58%-27%. Moreover, senior citizens say by 47%-37% that they want Democrats rather than Republicans to win control of Capitol Hill. Those under 65 prefer a Democratic victory by a narrower 45%-39% margin.

That disparity, like some other political differences between older and younger Americans, is relatively slight. But it has big implications for the 2006 campaign for two reasons.

One is that older voters, having given Mr. Bush slightly greater support than younger voters in his narrow 2004 re-election victory, have now become the most critical of his job performance. In the Journal/NBC poll, for instance, Americans under 65 disapprove of Mr. Bush's job performance by a margin of 16 percentage points, while those 65 and above disapprove by a margin of 20 percentage points.

The second is that older voters play an outsize role in midterm contests, because they traditionally turn out at higher rates while many young voters tune out campaigns not featuring a presidential contest. Voters older than 60 made up 24% of those voting in 2004, but a larger 28% in the 1998 midterm contest, the last such campaign for which exit-poll data are available.

The GOP had better get to work on that nursing home voter disenfranchisement.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I have 4 living grandparents, and they are awesome old-school Ohioans, despite being fairly conservative, and I closely listen to their opinions on politics. They've taught me a simple rule in life, don't mortally embarass the quiet people who vote every time. They never ask for anything and don't even complain much, but they don't forgive people who embarass them with dishonesty or incompetence. Rs have made such fools of Ohio that I am proud to know 4 evangelical christians who are ready to vote for Democrats. It won't be a slam dunk, but this is the biggest window ever in the family for new candidates to win.