Iran And You: What You Need To Know

If the administration decides to attack Iran, it's important to know what the ramifications will be for the average American. This will not be like the Iraq War where most of the burden of the war is being borne out by a very few. Let's take a look.

It's really all about the cost of oil. If you think gas prices are high now, you haven't seen anything like what an attack on Iran would cause. When Iran says it will attack US interests world wide, what they are really saying is that they will use their power to shut down oil getting to the United States.

It's not just the price you pay at the pump, everything you buy is priced based on the cost of oil. Consider this, the average distance food travels before you buy it is 1500 miles, and is moved by vehicles that at best gets eight miles to the gallon. At $3.00 a gallon, that cost is $562 per truckload. At $5.00 a gallon it's $938. You might want to start a garden.

It's not just that you'll have to pay more, they're be shortages. Will modern Americans accept rationing? I don't know, but we will certainly face such measures whether they are implemented by the government or simple supply and demand.

At best, we will face an economic death spiral as fuel costs shuts down our economy. At worst, we face WWIII. It could play out like this, We bomb Iran, they shut down the Straits of Hormuz or launch missile attacks into Ghawar. Who knows what Chavez will do in Venezuela, he could shut down oil shipments to the US. There is lies the rub, if we can't get oil, strategically we can't let China get oil and they buy theirs from Iran. We'd have to bomb the Iranian oil fields.

This would have the effect of finding a man bleeding to death, then shooting some more holes in him to ease the pressure of the blood squirting from his previous wounds. Eventually, we'd have to decide whether to stand around and throw rocks at each other, or lob nukes. I think we all know which way this administration would go.

Even if Iran doesn't use oil as a weapon, speculation on such will still drive the price up. As much as our nation has stockpiled oil, we still only have a sixty day supply in our Strategic Petroleum Reserves.

I guess the question is how much discomfort is the American public willing to endure to solve a problem that probably doesn't need to be solved for at least a decade. We should use this time to get our own house in order in the form of alternative energies before any military options are used. That's the one good thing that may emerge from this crisis. Whether or not we engage militarily, the focus this will put on our addiction to foreign oil will push alternative energy sources like never before.

Concerns about oil are precisely the reason I believe George Bush will not attack Iran. Voters are angry about the cost of oil now. Sending them higher would simply be a death knell for the republican party. But then again, who knows what the neocons are telling him.