Thursday, January 26, 2006

The Suicide Belt Revolution?

In what are yet unofficial election results, Hamas has claimed to have won 76 seats in the 132 seat Palestinian parliament. This is much better than anyone had anticipated and better than exit polling had shown, although exit polling in past Palestinian elections has consistently shown lower results for Hamas than the results. The results could complicate the peace process. From the Washington Post:

If confirmed by election officials in a Thursday evening news conference, the Hamas victory would end the governing Fatah party's decade-long control of the Palestinian Authority. It would also severely complicate Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas' policy of pursuing negotiations with Israel under a U.S.-backed peace plan known as the roadmap, which conflicts with Hamas' platform in several key respects.

Hamas officials in Gaza City, where their victory was greatest, said the group has no plans to negotiate with Israel or recognize Israel's right to exist. Europe, Israel and the United States classify Hamas, formally known as the Islamic Resistance Movement, as a terrorist organization.

I personally think that having Hamas inside the Palestinian government is a positive for the peace process, although with them having a ruling majority, the immediate future of the roadmap for peace is probably stalled. After some time, we can probably use their role inside the government to squeeze them into enforcing more discipline among their more radical elements to move the peace process forward.

The fact is, there are billions of dollars of investment in a Palestinian state waiting out there to be had if the peace process moves forward. Hamas now, as the ruling government, has both the inside track to gain access to these funds and the ability to enforce law and order, something Fatah never could do.

It should be interesting.

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