Ted, Just Admit It

It looks like Alaska Senator Ted Stevens is about to head down that road to nowhere, except that nowhere is the federal pen.

As you probably already know the FBI raided his home yesterday. What you might not know is that they also brought along some friends from the IRS, and when they pal along for the ride, let's just say you are about to get fucked in a very uncomfortable place, and I don't mean the back of a Volkswagen.

While it's true that Stevens is innocent until proven guilty, these guys don't make their move until they have you dead to rights.

Wait, You Mean We Have A Chance To Fuck It Up Even More?

Yes, we can. And yes, it looks like we're going to. In order to appease the Turks (I didn't think we did that appeasement thing) the US military is going to start fighting with the only remotely pro-American people in Iraq, the Kurds. From Juan Cole:

Liz Sly of the Trib reports on the tense Iraqi-Turkish border, made perilous by the safe harbor offered the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas by the leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan. At the last checkpoint under Iraqi control, she is told, "There could be bombing, and there are terrorists everywhere."

This delicate problem, which could blow up the northern reaches of the Middle East, requires delicate diplomacy, right? Nope. Bush thinks all problems can be resolved with violence. Dark Prince Bob Novak says that Undersecretary of Defense Eric Edelman has briefed Congress on a covert US operation to help Turkey suppress the PKK. The quid pro quo would be that Turkey would not invade northern Iraq.

The problem? The Kurds are the only firm ally the US had in Iraq, and US special ops troops getting directly involved against the PKK might well alienate the Kurds in general. You can hear W.'s fingernails squeak as they dig into the face of the high cliff down which he is gradually sliding.

What will be the outcome should this come to pass? Well for starters we will succeed in making a relatively peaceful populous restive, which of course will require more troops. Also, that Kurdish division that is part of "the surge" will most likely pack up and go home, which of course will require more troops.

And as for the whole reconciliation prospects of Iraq, this very well could push the Kurds to declare their independence.

Fucking up is par for the course for the Bush administration.

Oh and by the way, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki wants super greatest ever General Petraeus replaced.

Red Rover, Red Rover, Send Karl's Fat Ass Over

Rove subpoenaed

Fred Thompson: The No Dough Show

It's no wonder Fred Thompson hasn't yet made his campaign official, he's not raising much money. From MyDD:

Sources close to the presumptive campaign tell NBC News that Fred Thompson's fundraising is down "markedly." One claimed it has "slowed down big-time." The pace is described as a consequence of the delayed announcement to enter the race.

"The Friends of Fred, Inc." will report to the IRS its revenue by July 31st. Sources reveal to NBC News that number will be in the range of about $3 million. Five million dollars had been the talked-about June goal. Sources describe an early burst of donations in June and say the summer fundraising has fallen off. While additional fundraisers are planned, sources say the scheduling of fundraisers was "frozen" for a time while the team was going through some internal strains.

That's pretty pathetic. In fact, given that some top level staffers have recently left the campaign, I'd guess they are running on fumes alone. Republican savior indeed.

Pop

It sure looks like the slow fizz of the housing bubble bursting is turning into a full blown explosion rather quickly. Countrywide, the nation's largest mortgage underwriter is now reporting that a whopping 4.56% of their prime mortgages are at least thirty days late, and their sub-prime mortgages are a whopping 23.71% behind.

During a conference call with Countywide earlier this week the following statement was issued: "Company is seeing home price depreciation at levels not seen since the Great Depression."

I believe it is only going to get worse throughout 2008 with the unbelievable amount of ARM resets due in that time period.

Update: More bad news from WAPO:

The Commerce Department reported that sales of new single-family homes dropped by 6.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 834,000 units. The decline was more than triple what had been expected and was the largest percentage drop since sales fell by 12.7 percent in January. Sales are now 22.3 percent below the level of a year ago.

The median price of a new home sold last month dropped to $237,900, down by 2.2 percent from a year ago. It was the biggest year-over-year price drop since a 6.5 percent fall in April. The median price is the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less.

The big drop in new home sales followed a report Wednesday showing that existing home sales dropped by 3.8 percent in June to a five-year low. The weakness reflects spreading troubles in the mortgage market as more borrowers are defaulting on their loans, dumping those homes back on an already glutted market. In addition, banks and other lenders are tightening their standards, making it harder for prospective buyers to qualify for loans.

Ouch.

Oh Alberto!

It is pretty clear now that Alberto Gonzales has perjured himself before Congress, which of course is a crime. He likely has committed many other violations as well during his term as Attorney General. So, what do we do?

I think it is obvious that the votes for impeachment are there. There are twenty-two republican Senators up for reelection next year and most of them would be a fool to vote against the impeachment of someone as incompetent, and plainly guilty as Gonzales. Do we give them that opportunity to show off their independent side to their constituents? There are other options such as appointing a special prosecutor to look into the very narrow aspect of his lying to Congress, thus a speedy trial could occur even though President Bush would surely pardon him.

Whichever way the Democrats decide to go, it is hard to imagine someone competent tarnishing their name by filling the spot for the final eighteen months of this failed administration, so things might not get any better. In fact, I have to wonder how much prodding it will take to get Bush to send a name up to the Senate for confirmation.

I Wouldn't Go There

Recently Mitt Romney has been attacking Barack Obama for a bill Obama voted for while in the Illinois Senate. Romney says the bill allowed for teaching kindergartners sex education. In reality, it allowed the kids to be taught about inappropriate touching to help protect them from pedophiles.

I'm not sure I would want to go there if I were Romney, who as a legal adult, met his current wife while she was only 15, and comes from a religious background with a reputation for marrying off girls at a very young age. It might help you score points against an opponent, but you talking about it also reminds people that you're, well, creepy.

Found via Americablog

In the interest of full disclosure, I have donated money to the Obama campaign.

Finished

Sorry for the extended hiatus, but I had a project dumped on me that has taken pretty much all of my spare time. I finished that project this morning just after five. I have to admit it felt pretty weird not having anything to due after spending every morning for the past few weeks working. Much to the chagrin of my neighbors, I spent the time shredding documents.

So, did anything happen while I was gone? Ha! I'm not going to go back and look at the things that happened because this medium is a here and now kind of thing. I should be completely back up and running tomorrow.

Oh No!

As I briefly check in from my hiatus which should end this coming weekend, I have received the worst possible news. It seems Takeru Kobayashi has developed jaw arthritis and may not be able to compete in the July 4th Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating contest. From the Daily Telegraph:

Takeru 'Tsunami' said he can only open his mouth to make a gap the size of a fingertip after being diagnosed with jaw arthritis.

In an entry on his blog entitled Occupational Hazard, Kobayashi said: "My jaw refused to fight any more."

The injury occurred only a week after the slender 29-year-old started training to win his sixth
straight title at the annual July 4 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating contest on New York's Coney Island.

"I feel ashamed that I couldn't notice the alarm bells set off by my own body," he said. "But with the goal to win another title with a new record, I couldn't stop my training so close to the competition.

"I was continuing my training and bearing with the pain but finally I destroyed my jaw."

Gee, hard to believe scarfing down all those hot dogs has negative ramifications, isn't it?

And It's Not Going To Get Better Any Time Soon

A story in today's Washington Post tells the tale of the American housing market. Foreclosures are sky high. From the Washington Post:

The percentage of U.S. mortgages entering foreclosure in the first three months of the year was the highest in more than 50 years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

As the association released its numbers, the Federal Reserve held a hearing to determine whether regulators could do anything to crack down on abusive lending practices, which have exacerbated the problem

The problems arose last year as the housing market softened, driving down home prices and making it more difficult for cash-strapped borrowers to sell their homes or refinance their way out of trouble.

The most dramatic fallout took place in the sub-prime market, which caters to people with blemished credit or other factors that make them a risk to lenders.

Those borrowers entered foreclosure at a rate of 2.43 percent, up from 2 percent the previous quarter. The percentages seem small, but they are far above norms, particularly in a healthy economy. The concern is that the mortgage industry's troubles could damage the economy if they are not contained.

This is a problem that isn't going away anytime soon. The following graph (shamelessly nicked from At These Levels) shows the volume of upcoming ARM mortgage resets. In the next 24 months close to a trillion dollars worth of these mortgages (4 - 5 million homes) are going to reset with at least 60% of those resets coming in the sub-prime market. A fair amount of these sub-prime mortgages have large penalties for prepayment, that and along with slumping home prices makes it very hard to refinance your way out of your loan. You're just stuck on the rocky road to foreclosure.

When that happens the economy is going to go south pretty quickly.

Tears Of A Clown

Damn those mean Democrats for pointing out that interim U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin got his job through abject cronyism. From TPM Muckraker:

Former interim U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin tearily announced Thursday that public service is, "not worth it."

Griffin was named to replace Bud Cummins after Cummins was fired by the Bush administration along with seven other U.S. Attorneys.

Griffin addressed a lunchtime audience at the Clinton School of Public service Thursday, sometimes crying as he said he had no plans to return to politics.

Poor little guy, never even got a chance to abuse his power to disenfranchise African-American voters.

Scooter Libby

I wouldn't get too excited about the prospect of Scooter Libby being hauled off to jail anytime soon. He will appeal the decision to go directly to jail. Time to do some judge shopping, white shoes required.

The Art Of The Con

In case you haven't noticed, a new sort of gambling hall has been popping up all over Ohio, featuring what are being termed games of skill. That is, the games are at least 51% skill based. These games should be outlawed.

I don't make this judgement based on the fact that Ohio voters have turned down gambling on the ballot three times, these games are not gambling. Instead, they are con games dressed up as gambling. Let me explain.

If you go to any state that allows electronic gaming, there is a state law that governs the minimum rate of return that those games pay out. For instance, in Nevada the minimum rate of return is 75% and in New Jersey it is 83%. Competition for players of those games though generally drives up the rate of return to the high nineties. The games populating Ohio have much, much lower rates of return, but are dressed up to look like the games players are used to playing in states that have regulatory control of the rate of returns.

What this generally means is that if over a period of time in Nevada you inserted $100,000,000 into an electronic game, at the end of play you would have roughly $75,000,000 left over and the house would keep the rest. In Ohio, you might only be left with half that, if anything.

To put it quite simply, legalizing gambling in Ohio would be the equivalent of legalizing pot, keeping games of skill legal in Ohio is the equivalent of legalizing crack.

As a test, I recently went to one of these parlors to see how long it would take me to lose $100. The game I played offered me nine ways to win each hand. I played a dime each way for a total of ninety cents a hand. The hundred dollars was gone in just over an hour. Imagine how fast a hard core gambling addict, or drunk, would lose his money.

We are currently getting all of the pitfalls of gambling, with none of the benefits that scrupulously run casinos would bring. The legislature needs to close the door on this loophole by making them illegal, or vote to allow legalized gambling in Ohio. I really don't care which way they go on this issue, but to do nothing is a criminal in itself.

The 2007 Comfest Schedule Is Out

Click to enlarge

The Great Grift

Wow, I knew the economic outlook in Albania was bleak, but getting the whole country together pretending to like Bush just to nick a watch, that's beyond bleak.

Seriously though, why did the White House lie about the watch getting stolen? Oh yea, it's the Bush White House, it's all they do.

Heh

I find this hilarious. Jonah Goldberg prints a letter from one of his readers which ends:

Conservatives need to turn off the money spigot. We can turn it back on in plenty of time for the general election next year, but right now we need to stop writing checks to any GOP organization and to any candidate who is not explicitly supporting a conservative agenda. If money is the lifeblood of politics, we need to apply a tourniquet and NOW if we're going to get our so-called elected representatives to pay any attention to us and get their heads out of the D.C. bubble. (He said, being charitable.)

I don't find this funny because the GOP base is angry, nor because they think their small donors matter. No, I find this funny because a letter talking about turning off the spigot was printed by a guy who has spent his entire adult life drinking from the hose it fills.

Soprano's Finale

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Well, I watched the finale of the Soprano's and I found it to be intriguing at the very least. I thought the episode was alright over all, but the last scene is really all there is to talk about. I admit it, I was DVRing the episode and when the screen went black, I thought that because the show went long, it had screwed up the ending until the credits rolled.

Now as to the final scene, which I watched several times, was left up to interpretation. My interpretation is this: Tony was shot dead when the scene went black. Not by the guy who went to the restroom in a Godfather reference, but by the two African-American men who were shown entering the restaurant. If you watch that last shot where Tony's eyes look powerfully into the camera, while your eyes are looking into his eyes, there is something else going on in that scene. If you watch carefully, and you might have to watch it in slow motion, it appears Tony was going for a gun. His left hand drops off the jukebox into his waistband and starts to jerk back up when the screen goes black, although it is his left hand and Tony is a rightie. Tony is looking toward the door, but that isn't a look you give your daughter, and the only two people between him are the two African-Americans who might have been hired by the Brooklyn underlings in an off the books hit since with Phil dead, killing Tony would leave it all to themselves.

Who knows though? Could be something else.

It was also good to see The Noisettes got a song on the final episode.

Sopranos Prediction

Since it is the topic de jour this week, I guess I should make a prediction about the final episode of The Sopranos. So, here it goes.

I believe that in the wake of nobody showing up for his mother's funeral, Paulie Walnuts has become a sort of double agent for the New York mob. As such, he intentionally gave the cousins from Italy the wrong address for the hit on Phil Leotardo. Probably someone he had a beef with in the past. This gave Phil extra time to pull off the decapitation of the New Jersey mob, which Paulie would inherit after the decapitation.

In fact, I think the fed who tipped off Tony will soon know that the info they picked up on the wiretap was actually Paulie talking to Phil about it. Did you notice how fast Paulie bugged out of town once it became known that the hit on Phil was a failure?

Anyway, before Phil's gang can find Tony, the feds do, and they take him into custody. Perhaps the information Tony provided on the Middle Easterners panned out or maybe just because Tony's situation is so dire, the inform Tony that his gang is decimated and they offer him witness protection to prosecute Phil as it is his only way out.

Tony takes the deal. As I heard earlier this week, they are the Sopranos, and what do Sopranos do? They sing. Then Tony's life becomes something similar to the dream sequence after he got shot in which he is that sad sack of a salesman. Forced to live his life out of the game, a fate worse than prison save one thing. Tony actually knows where Junior hid all the money.

That or the set breaks open and all the characters fall into a pool where they perform some sort of Ethel Merman aqua-ballet number.

Bluff Called

Vladimir Putin has called George Bush's bluff of Bush's call for cooperation with the Russians on a missile defense plan. I have to admit I was pretty shocked when Bush went so far out on a limb yesterday when he called for such cooperation. Today, Putin said sure, why don't you install one in Azerbaijan. Neither man can let this happen, and here's why.

Bush cannot install one of these Interceptor missiles in Azerbaijan because if the Russians get hold of it they will reverse engineer it and find out that it is a complete and total fraud. This thing most likely doesn't work at all in a real world situation and we can't let the Russians know that. We have to make them think that it is a possibility that it will work.

As for Putin, he can't really let it be installed in Russia because on the off chance that it does work, he certainly knows that hidden somewhere deep in the code is what we would refer to as an off switch which would put him at a distinct disadvantage. Putin must take the threat of these seriously and develop technology to overcome them which is hard to do while they are not only your defense, but your enemies too.

Putin is simply saying this because he knows he has just made George Bush the fool. George Bush is right about one thing though. The Interceptor is not a threat to Russia, it's a threat to the American taxpayer's wallet.

Paris Liberated!

Paris Hilton has been released from prison due to medical concerns. Is this giving you any ideas Scooter?