Kilroy Loses

The officially certified results from the Ohio-15 race have shown Deb Pryce to be the winner over Mary Jo Kilroy by a total of 1,054 votes. I'm don't know if there will be a recount.

It's The Game, Stupid

People from around the country might not understand this, but this is the way we do things here in central Ohio. Anyone who wants to learn the outcome of the Kilroy -Pryce House race is going to have to wait an extra day. Why? The first day counting can begin is the day of the Ohio St. Michigan game and absolutely nothing gets done that day which doesn't involve beer and brats.

For the record it's about 197 hours to kick-off. Woo Hoo!! Go Bucks!!

Weirder And Stranger

The Franklin County Board of elections has now released a third set of numbers , the "official" unofficial numbers, in the Pryce - Kilroy race that differs from both the SOS numbers and the AP numbers which the AP have now admitted were incorrect. According to the Franklin County BOE, Kilroy now trails Pryce by just 2,835 votes with about 20,000 outstanding ballots left to be counted in this race of the nearly 41,000 outstanding in the county, a high number for the number of voters that turned out on Tuesday. Hey, you can always count on the Franklin County BOE to screw up an election.

One of the things I would like to know is how did the AP come up with their numbers in the first place. The over-reporting of ballots cast by the AP was systemic in Ohio which is why I assumed they had access to some unreleased absentee ballot information. That may remain to be true, but as of this point they have offered no explanation that I have seen.

We may just get a mini-Florida style recount after all.

Kilroy - Pryce

It should be known that a GOP outfit in Tennessee compiles the Secretary of State's web totals. I'm not saying this is a conspiracy, I just don't think they had access to anything but the actual election day totals while the AP seemed to get those votes plus absentees turned in prior to Monday somehow.

On The Pryce Kilroy Race

At this point Mary Jo Kilroy trails Deb Pryce by 3,536 votes. In the Franklin County part of this district, I would expect that there are roughly 16,000 outstanding ballots. These ballots are either absentee ballots that were received Monday or Tuesday and provisional ballots cast yesterday.

If you assume that absentee ballots break the same as provisional ballots 75% of them should be valid and using a model showing them breaking 2-1 for Kilroy it should net her an additional roughly 4,000 votes. Of course that assumes that every ballot cast a vote for this race which isn't realistic.

I can only assume that after the outstanding ballots are counted in this race it should be tighter than a gnat's ass. I look for a mini-Florida style recount with both parties challenging ballots to the end. You better lawyer up Mary Jo.

I started to get uneasy about this race yesterday afternoon after hearing just too many reports of short or no lines at the polls. I had previously been confident that Mary Jo would win, but I sensed a depressed turnout in some of our core districts so I went out into the field to check it out for myself. It was dismal. At the large precinct I vote in, turnout was around twenty percent as of the next to last poll strike. It wasn't much better at others I visited.

A couple of Dem workers assured me that thirty percent of it had voted early. That remains to be seen. I somehow doubt it.

Update: It appears that CNN's numbers contain absentee ballots while the SOS does not. Kilroy is probably toast.