Thursday, April 13, 2006

16 Days

I didn't get a chance yesterday to comment on, no, mock this headline from Bloomberg:

Iran Could Produce Nuclear Bomb in 16 Days, U.S. Says


Technically, that's true. It's also true that I myself could produce enough enriched uranium to produce a nuclear bomb in 16 days. Oh, and by the way, I'm not signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty either. Of course, you would have to spot me the ten years I would need to build a 54,000 tube industrial grade centrifuge plant. (Eight years if I can skirt those pesky OSHA regulations)

Now, Iran is a little farther along in the process than I am. (I have a little undocumented worker problem, and I also am sorely underfunded.) Where Iran is ahead of me is that they have built a little 164 tube pilot plant. You always build a pilot plant before going full scale because you don't want to build an entire industrial grade plant only to find out it isn't going to work. That will cost you your job, and in Iran, probably a lot more.

Iran's 164 tube pilot plant would need about fourteen years to produce enough enriched uranium for a single nuclear weapon, and that's with no down time. That's what's so ridiculous about the Bloomberg title. Iran is moving forward on completing a full industrial grade centrifuge plant that would allow them to crank out enriched uranium at that pace, but they are a couple of years from completion. This isn't a today problem, we have a couple of years before bombing becomes necessary. Keep in mind that I'm not saying that force might not eventually become necessary, but we have time to lean on them.


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