Expensive

This year looks like it is going to be very expensive for republicans, in both seats lost and money spent. Want to know how bad it is for republicans? Check out how much money the NRCC is dumping into Duke Cunningham's old seat just to make sure one of their candidates makes it into a runoff in the special election to replace him. From the Stakeholder:

Public information, but not online: NRCC just bought $360,665 worth of ads in the district. 925 points, meaning the average targeted voter will see their ad 9-10 times before election day.

That's a 925 point buy in a district where registered republicans outnumber registered Democrats by sixteen points (46R/30D/24I). Ouch, that's gotta hurt.

Flexibility

After reading the following paragraph over at Atrios on Monday, I started wondering about Alan Greenspan's book deal. From Atrios:

When they refinanced their home two years ago to pay off some bills, Robert, now 78, was working as a deliveryman. But his employer went out of business last April. Now he and Lorraine, 72, a retired nurse, are both seeking work. The rate on their mortgage has jumped from 7% to 10.5%.

Perhaps when they refinanced their mortgage two years ago, they did it on the advise of Alan Greenspan. At the time, the dust from the mortgage boom was settling, and it had pumped about $1 trillion dollars into the US economy. Money was cheap, probably the cheapest we'll ever see in my lifetime. A lot of people had locked their mortgages in at record low fixed interest rates.

Then, as the boom was ending, Greenspan gave what I have to believe to be the stupidest advise I've ever heard in my life. People needed to abandon their fixed interest loans for adjustable rate mortgages to give them financial "flexibility." This was insane, and most reasonable economists said so at the time. It would however pump more money into the US economy.

Here's the thing though, Greenspan isn't an idiot. sure, he's hack and a yes man, but he's not dumb. The question I have is did Greenspan say this to try to keep the refinancing boom going to support the economy long enough for him to reap a seven figure book deal that awaited him after his retirement?

The book deal doubled his reported net worth, and Greenspan hasn't been shy about accepting speaking fees since his retirement either. He recently accented $250,000 from Lehman Brothers as an appearance fee.

Do, did Greenspan give the housing bubble a little more elasticity just for the sake of personal gain?

Ken Blackwell

I have a few thoughts on the whole Ken Blackwell / Diebold stock issue. I don't know, and honestly doubt there were any improprieties but lets take a look at a couple of the issues involved.

First of all, to the layman, it looks bad. Buying an strange number of shares (178) with an amount that comes in at just under $10,000 has the smell of impropriety. It looks like he was trying to avoid some kind of reporting limit, especially when you're tight with the CEO, and allegations of him conducting inside trading have been made. In reality, it was probably part of a larger buy for other clients by the fund manager.

Secondly, this paragraph from the Dispatch:

Blackwell said that a past manager was given verbal instructions about stocks to avoid. But Blackwell changed managers at the end of 2004, and the new one did not follow those instructions and bought 178 shares of Diebold stock in January 2005 for $53.67 a share, or $9,553.

As an elected official, you don't do anything that is going to be on the up and up verbally. So this as well looks bad. When Blackwell switched fund managers, he damn well knows that he again should have submitted the stocks he wished to avoid in writing to cover his ass from any future problems like this. Also, unlike most politicians in a position to influence business, Blackwell's portfolio wasn't in a blind trust. It's just sloppy to not be concerned about the appearance of propriety of his portfolio.

After The Dawn

Now that Tom Delay's dark days in Congress are coming to an end, what's next? Apparently in Texas, the governor has the option whether or not to call a special election and that's a tricky issue for the republicans. They can only do it after Delay is removed from the ballot, which can only be done if he is convicted of a felony, dies, or moves from the district. That's why he plans to change his residence to Alexandria, Va.

It would probably be a mistake to call a special election with a general election only seven months away. Democrats, with big help from the netroots, have done very well in special elections recently, and a close race or Dem win, it would hurt their chances in the fall to retain Delay's seat in this republican leaning (55%) district. Hopefully a Delay hangover will still influence this race. A credible Democratic candidate in Nick Lampson should make this race competitive anyway.

As for what Delay is going to do, I look for him to use some of his re-elction money for legal defense, and spread the rest around to colleagues. Then it's off to jail, or to collect on owed favors. No matter what Delay says, I think the feds must be getting awfully close to him.

The Hammer Bangs No More

Tom Delay is dropping out of his re-election race tell House allies that the race is unwinnable. From the Washington Post:

Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), a primary architect of the House Republican majority who became one of the most powerful and feared leaders in Washington, told House allies Monday night he will step down from the House rather than face a reelection fight that appears increasingly unwinnable.

Well, the chief rat in the House has now jumped ship, and for him to do so, you'd have to think a federal indictment is in his near future, especially when you consider that Abramoff is only has ninety days to wrap up his help the prosecution before he heads off to jail.

I had wondered how long Delay would hang around even if he didn't face further legal problems. It's tough to go from running the House to being just another schmuck Congressman.

The good news just keeps rolling in this election year.

Moussaoui Verdict In

The Moussaoui verdict is in as to whether he is eligible for the death penalty and will be returned in a few minutes (4:00PM). I'm going to take a flyer and say that he will be eligible.

Bill Frist

I think Charlie Cook is on board with my assertion that Bill Frist is such a stiff that he has no chance of ever becoming President. From The New York Times:

"The most classic case of the Peter Principle I've ever seen in American politics," Mr. Cook said, in an uncharacteristically brutal assessment. "In a business where eloquence and rhetoric is important, he is a man of no talent whatsoever."

That's about as blunt as it gets, it's grammatically incorrect, but still blunt. Please let this guy get the republican nomination in 2008.

Boo Repellant

I was wondering how much booing there would be when President Bush took to the mound in Cincinnati to throw out the first pitch. Cincinnati is a pretty conservative town, but with an approval rating in the low thirties I thought there would have to be a few. Fortunately for him, he brought along a little boo repellent. From the Cincinnati Enquirer Opening Day Blog:

Bush came out to loud cheers and applause from the sellout crowd, and was accompanied by two wounded Iraq veterans - Paul Brondhaver, of Union Township, and Sgt. First Class Michael McNaughton, of Louisiana, who lost a leg in Iraq and met Bush last year in an army hospital.

No matter how much you hate the guy, you can't boo when he comes out with two wounded vets. Pretty smart move by his PR team.

Visitors

For those of you that are locals, Ramji arrived in town last night and Julie will arrive on Thursday. Saturday, there is a party at MK's house in their honor. E-mail me if you need directions.

Iraq

You want good news about Iraq, you got it. Conservatives have been bemoaning the fact that the media is not reporting the good news about the reconstruction projects, but today's Washington Post lays it out for them. From the Post:

A reconstruction contract for the building of 142 primary health centers across Iraq is running out of money, after two years and roughly $200 million, with no more than 20 clinics now expected to be completed, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says.

There you have it, a whopping 14% completion rate. We are doing a little better with sanitation and water projects at 36% (49-136) and electrical projects 71% (300-425). Not bad for $18.4 billion dollars, huh.

Rick Santorum

It's a dirty little secret, but I'm actually going to miss Rick Santorum when he gets beat by Bob Casey this fall. I love to watch his speeches because they are so batshit insane, they're truly funny. Santorum Exposed has video up for Ricky's latest gem. He basically says that Western Europe is "being overrun from overseas" presumably by brown people because Europeans aren't keen enough on Jesus. I especially like the way Santorum shudders when he says this.

I guess Rick's message to Pennsylvanians in the middle of this immigration debate is that the brown people will over run you too if you don't get a little keener on Jesus, so what are you going to do about it, whitey?

Anyway, go watch the video here, because you don't have a lot of time left to catch Ricky's road show. The tour ends November 7 at a ballot box near you.

The New York Times

Note to New York Times online management: Fire web designer.

Iran And Terror

The Washington Post has a story about the possibilities of Iran sponsoring terrorism in response to an attack on their nuclear program. While that could happen, I'm a little more worried about two new military developments the Iranians have showed off in the last couple of days.

First, they showed off a new missile that they claim can avoid anti-missile defenses and can reach Israel, and more importantly, Saudi oil processing facilities.

Now today we find out that they have developed a new high speed torpedo that can reach speeds of 360 kilometers per hour and can be fired from portable launchers from land. With these, they can effectively shut down the Straight Of Hormuz whenever they want.

The Iranians have said they won't use oil as a weapon, I find that hard to believe. It's just too effective a strategy to use as a defense for their country.

Found via Shockwave over at Kos

Letting Bush Be Bush

I'm not sure the White House's new strategy of letting Bush be Bush is going to help his approval ratings any, and in fact, it might hurt him. From the Washington Post:

As he takes to the road to salvage his presidency, Bush is letting down his guard and playing up his anti-intellectual, regular-guy image. Where he spent last year in rehearsed forums with select supporters, these days he is more frequently throwing aside the script and opening himself to questions from audiences that are not prescreened. These sessions have put a sometimes playful, sometimes awkward side back on display after years of trying to keep it under control to appear more presidential.

The problem with this is that he isn't going to sway the public with likeability, those people are already cemented in their love or hate of him. He needs to convince the public that he is competent to do the job, which they currently aren't. Playing up his anti-intellectualism isn't going to help him, that's the reason his numbers are in the tank anyway, because he is, you know, stupid.

The White House can spin this any way they want, but the fact is they're letting stupid be stupid.

Katherine Harris

Katherine Harris gave her staff until 5:00PM today to decide if they wanted to continue on with her campaign, and decide they did. All of the remaining senior staff members have resigned. From the Orlando Sentinel:

"These changes have been part a thoughtful process at the highest strategic levels of my campaign. We are stronger as a campaign today than we were yesterday."

Former campaign manager Jim Dornan, who resigned in November, disagreed with the assessment.

"She had the best people in the country," he said. "She can't get any better than that. This is a campaign that is spiraling downward by the minute, and the smartest thing for her to do would be to get out of the race."

"Katherine's trying to run it and a candidate can't run her own campaign. It's foolish for her to try," Dornan said.

Among those resigning from the campaign were Ed Rollins, a political adviser to President Reagan and others; campaign manager Jamie Miller, who replaced Dornan; and press secretary Morgan Dobbs.

My understanding of the problems facing the Harris campaign is that she simply would not listen to any of her advisers, instead favoring the views put forward by her loony spiritual adviser Dale Burroughs. That's not gonna change when these people are replaced.

It's a shame there isn't a little more "Dr. Dale" to go around.

DomiNoe, DC Style

The Toledo Blade has a story today about Tom Noe's dealings in Washington. It looks like Noe was rapidly working his way through DC the same way he worked through the state republican party. The White House created a new committee for Noe to chair, and Mike Oxley changed the rules to allow him to get that chairmanship From The Toledo Blade:

In April, 2003, President Bush signed a bill establishing the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee, which replaced the Citizens Commemorative Coinage Advisory Committee, a panel that advised the treasury secretary on commemorative coin designs.

According to e-mails, the White House played a key role in helping Mr. Noe win a seat on the newly minted committee.

Officially, House Speaker Hastert, an Illinois Republican, recommended Mr. Noe to Treasury Secretary Snow, but an e-mail from Ms. Marchessault to Kim Nickles, a treasury liaison to the White House, revealed that Mr. Noe was an “original White House recommendation,” whom she was “finally able to get on the committee through the congressional recommendations.”

In February, 2003, during a visit to the White House, Mr. Noe was expected to take part in an “Ohio political strategy session” with Karl Rove, who is considered the architect of President Bush’s political career, and Ken Mehlman, who was later named the President’s campaign manager.

The legislation that created the new coinage committee — which passed through the House Financial Services Committee chaired by Congressman Oxley (R., Findlay) — changed the rules for selecting the panel’s chairman, making it easier for someone such as Mr. Noe to become the leader.

Under the new rules, the chairman was picked by the treasury secretary rather than by members of the committee.

Now, the position isn't a paid one, but does offer reimbursements for travel, meals, lodging and other incidentals, so the question has to be asked. Was Tom Noe turning in travel expenses he incurred while helping out the Bush campaign in the 2004, and was the US Mint also paying the bills for these meals in the Caucus Room? From The Blade:

Mr. Noe told Ms. Marchessault that he had reserved the back room at the Caucus Room and “it is under my name and company name … will be about 15 to 20 people there … we get in at 5 p.m. on private plane at [Baltimore-Washington International Airport].”

Fifteen to twenty people at the Caucus Room with wine, and they have over 4,000 varieties, is probably going to land you a four figure check.

The Treasury Department is investigating.

Moving Out

One statistic in a New York Times article about the newly homeless living in their cars stood out to me. From The Times:

Last year was the first year on record, according to an annual study conducted by the National Low Income Housing Coalition, that a full-time worker at minimum wage could not afford a one-bedroom apartment anywhere in the country at average market rates.

I think it's well past time that our government has a serious debate about raising the federal minimum wage in this country, which has remained stagnant at $5.15 per hour since 1997. With the exception of a couple years where the minimum wage was modestly raised, the purchasing power of a minimum wage job has fallen every year since 1968. In fact, a minimum wage job of 2005 had only 58% of the purchasing power of a 1968 one.

Under Bill Clinton, while the government did raise this wage twice by a total of 90 cents, the federal government basically punted on the issue, handing it off to the state legislatures. Here in Ohio, our generous government has only this year raised our minimum wage to the federal level.

This gives Democrats a huge opportunity to use this issue much as the right used the gay marriage issue to get their voters to the polls in the last cycle. After all, who wouldn't go to the polls to vote to put a little more money in their wallets.

Indeed, labor and ACORN are doing just that right now by putting forth a Constitutional Amendment on Ohio's November ballot to raise our minimum wage to $6.85 per hour.

All politics aside though, if you have live in your car with a full time minimum wage job, the federal government should act now and not wait fro the states or the people to do their job for them.

John McFlipFlopCain

It was pretty funny watching John McCain disavowing a lot of his previous statements on Meet The Press today. Tim Russert actually asked McCain some tough questions about his past musings, and McCain folded up like a cheap lawn chair.

McCain looked not like his straight talk persona, but that of the worst type of politician, the flip flopper. After viewing McCain on Meet The Press, I came away more strongly believing that he will be a non-factor in the 2008 presidential elections. His opponents in the primary are going to shred him.

Double Digits, Baby!

Whoa, the latest poll out from Rasmussen Reports shows Gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland with a double digit lead over both Ken Blackwell (50-40) and Jim Petro (47-34).

While some of this can be attributed to the highly negative republican primary, that's a pretty substantial lead that should help down ticket races across the board, because if the governor's race is seen as unwinnable, it will be harder to get their voters to the polls in November.

That would in particular hurt Mike DeWine. The Christian right that will show up no matter what, but they hate DeWine. If the soft supporters of the republican party don't show up to support him, he's toast. DeWine currently has a three point lead over Sherrod Brown (45-42) according to Rasmussen.

Hope Springs Eternal

Tomorrow, the great American pastime kicks off its 2006 season. As every baseball fan knows, their team is currently in first place. That will change month by month as the weaker teams fall off the radar.

The same thing is true in politics, the coming months will sort out the contenders from the pretenders. This cycle is a little different from the last couple, this time it is the republicans are the team is disarray, and their number one pitcher is mired in a losing streak. Losses in Baghdad, New Orleans, and Dubai come to mind in particular.

The republicans top pitcher will take to the hill tomorrow in Cincinnati where he will throw out the ceremonious first pitch before my beloved Reds play the Chicago Cubs. Afterward, Bush will sit like a pitcher with a no hitter going, alone, but unlike a pitcher with all his best stuff working, the rest of his team won't go near Bush for fear his negative energy will rub off on their own campaigns.

Republican Senator Mike DeWine, who will also be at the game, laughably had this to say about his avoidance of Bush. From Openers:

The Ohio Republican told reporters on Tuesday that he'd sit with the President "if I'm invited," but added that "a lot of people want to sit with the president."

Yea, a lot of people still do want to sit with Bush, unless you're running for the Senate, in which case he might as well have the plague. If DeWine isn't proudly sitting with Bush in Cincinnati, which is by far the most conservative city in Ohio, then Bush has to be considered a severe problem for republicans not just in Ohio, but also in a lot of other states.

Yea, like they say, hope does spring eternal, but this spring holds a lot more to be hopeful about than the previous two cycles.